The Craft of Incentive Prize Design: Lessons from the Public Sector

In the last five years, incentive prizes have transformed from an exotic open innovation tool to a proven innovation strategy for the public, private and philanthropic sectors. This report offers practical lessons for public sector leaders and their counterparts in the philanthropic and private sectors to help understand what types of outcomes incentive prizes help to achieve, what design elements prize designers use to create these challenges and how to make smart design choices to achieve a particular outcome. It synthesizes insights from expert interviews and analysis of more than 400 prize

Modelling the impact and cost-effectiveness of combination prevention amongst HIV serodiscordant couples in Nigeria.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the impact and cost-effectiveness of treatment as prevention (TasP), pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and condom promotion for serodiscordant couples in Nigeria. DESIGN: Mathematical and cost modelling. METHODS: A deterministic model of HIV-1 transmission within a cohort of serodiscordant couples and to/from external partners was parameterized using data from Nigeria and other African settings. The impact and cost-effectiveness were estimated for condom promotion, PrEP and/or TasP, compared with a baseline where antiretroviral therapy (ART) was offered according to 2010 national guidelines (CD4 <350 cells/μl) to all HIV-positive partners. The impact was additionally compared with a baseline of current ART coverage (35% of those with CD4 <350 cells/μl). Full costs (in US $2012) of programme introduction and implementation were estimated from a provider perspective. RESULTS: Substantial benefits came from scaling up ART to all HIV-positive partners according to 2010 national guidelines, with additional smaller benefits of providing TasP, PrEP or condom promotion. Compared with a baseline of offering ART to all HIV-positive partners at the 2010 national guidelines, condom promotion was the most cost-effective strategy [US$1206/disability-adjusted-life-year (DALY)], the next most cost-effective intervention was to additionally give TasP to HIV-positive partners (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio US $1607/DALY), followed by additionally giving PrEP to HIV-negative partners until their HIV-positive partners initiate ART (US$7870/DALY). When impact was measured in terms of infections averted, PrEP with condom promotion prevented double the number of infections as condom promotion alone. CONCLUSIONS: The first priority intervention for serodiscordant couples in Nigeria should be scaled up ART access for HIV-positive partners. Subsequent incremental benefits are greatest with condom promotion and TasP, followed by PrEP

Single cell derived mRNA signals across human kidney tumors.

Funder: Department of HealthTumor cells may share some patterns of gene expression with their cell of origin, providing clues into the differentiation state and origin of cancer. Here, we study the differentiation state and cellular origin of 1300 childhood and adult kidney tumors. Using single cell mRNA reference maps of normal tissues, we quantify reference "cellular signals" in each tumor. Quantifying global differentiation, we find that childhood tumors exhibit fetal cellular signals, replacing the presumption of "fetalness" with a quantitative measure of immaturity. By contrast, in adult cancers our assessment refutes the suggestion of dedifferentiation towards a fetal state in most cases. We find an intimate connection between developmental mesenchymal populations and childhood renal tumors. We demonstrate the diagnostic potential of our approach with a case study of a cryptic renal tumor. Our findings provide a cellular definition of human renal tumors through an approach that is broadly applicable to human cancer

Global Air Quality and COVID-19 Pandemic : Do We Breathe Cleaner Air?

The global spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has challenged most countries worldwide. It was quickly recognized that reduced activities (lockdowns) during the Coronavirus Disease of 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic produced major changes in air quality. Our objective was to assess the impacts of COVID-19 lockdowns on groundlevel PM2.5, NO2, and O-3 concentrations on a global scale. We obtained data from 34 countries, 141 cities, and 458 air monitoring stations on 5 continents (few data from Africa). On a global average basis, a 34.0% reduction in NO2 concentration and a 15.0% reduction in PM2.5 were estimated during the strict lockdown period (until April 30, 2020). Global average O-3 concentration increased by 86.0% during this same period. Individual country and continent-wise comparisons have been made between lockdown and business-as-usual periods. Universally, NO2 was the pollutant most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. These effects were likely because its emissions were from sources that were typically restricted (i.e., surface traffic and non-essential industries) by the lockdowns and its short lifetime in the atmosphere. Our results indicate that lockdown measures and resulting reduced emissions reduced exposure to most harmful pollutants and could provide global-scale health benefits. However, the increased O-3 may have substantially reduced those benefits and more detailed health assessments are required to accurately quantify the health gains. At the same, these restrictions were obtained at substantial economic costs and with other health issues (depression, suicide, spousal abuse, drug overdoses, etc.). Thus, any similar reductions in air pollution would need to be obtained without these extensive economic and other consequences produced by the imposed activity reductions.Peer reviewe

Socio-cultural determinants of physical activity across the life course: a 'Determinants of Diet and Physical Activity' (DEDIPAC) umbrella systematic literature review

Objective Regular physical activity (PA) reduces the risk of disease and premature death. Knowing factors associated with PA might help reducing the disease and economic burden caused by low activity. Studies suggest that socio-cultural factors may affect PA, but systematic overviews of findings across the life course are scarce. This umbrella systematic literature review (SLR) summarizes and evaluates available evidence on socio-cultural determinants of PA in children, adolescents, and adults. Methods This manuscript was drafted following the recommendations of the ‘Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses’ (PRISMA) checklist. The MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus, and SPORTDiscus databases were searched for SLRs and meta-analyses (MAs) on observational studies published in English that assessed PA determinants between January 2004 and April 2016. The methodological quality was assessed and relevant information on socio-cultural determinants and any associations with PA was extracted. The available evidence was evaluated based on the importance of potential determinants and the strength of the evidence. Results Twenty SLRs and three MAs encompassing 657 eligible primary studies investigated potential socio-cultural PA determinants, with predominantly moderate methodological quality. Twenty-nine potential PA determinants were identified that were primarily assessed in children and adolescents and investigated the micro-environmental home/household level. We found probable evidence that receiving encouragement from significant others and having a companion for PA were associated with higher PA in children and adolescents, and that parental marital status (living with partner) and experiencing parental modeling were not associated with PA in children. Evidence for the other potential determinants was limited, suggestive, or non-conclusive. In adults, quantitative and conclusive data were scarce. Conclusions A substantial number of SLRs and MAs investigating potential socio-cultural determinants of PA were identified. Our data suggest that receiving social support from significant others may increase PA levels in children and adolescents, whereas parental marital status is not a determinant in children. Evidence for other potential determinants was limited. This was mainly due to inconsistencies in results on potential socio-cultural determinants of PA across reviews and studies

Increasing frailty is associated with higher prevalence and reduced recognition of delirium in older hospitalised inpatients: results of a multi-centre study

Purpose: Delirium is a neuropsychiatric disorder delineated by an acute change in cognition, attention, and consciousness. It is common, particularly in older adults, but poorly recognised. Frailty is the accumulation of deficits conferring an increased risk of adverse outcomes. We set out to determine how severity of frailty, as measured using the CFS, affected delirium rates, and recognition in hospitalised older people in the United Kingdom. Methods: Adults over 65 years were included in an observational multi-centre audit across UK hospitals, two prospective rounds, and one retrospective note review. Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), delirium status, and 30-day outcomes were recorded. Results: The overall prevalence of delirium was 16.3% (483). Patients with delirium were more frail than patients without delirium (median CFS 6 vs 4). The risk of delirium was greater with increasing frailty [OR 2.9 (1.8–4.6) in CFS 4 vs 1–3; OR 12.4 (6.2–24.5) in CFS 8 vs 1–3]. Higher CFS was associated with reduced recognition of delirium (OR of 0.7 (0.3–1.9) in CFS 4 compared to 0.2 (0.1–0.7) in CFS 8). These risks were both independent of age and dementia. Conclusion: We have demonstrated an incremental increase in risk of delirium with increasing frailty. This has important clinical implications, suggesting that frailty may provide a more nuanced measure of vulnerability to delirium and poor outcomes. However, the most frail patients are least likely to have their delirium diagnosed and there is a significant lack of research into the underlying pathophysiology of both of these common geriatric syndromes